tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15868947.post7785479743712691130..comments2023-10-29T06:41:23.910-07:00Comments on Halfway There: Obama is building the baseZenohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09058127284297728552noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15868947.post-48014285812093273662008-08-25T19:23:00.000-07:002008-08-25T19:23:00.000-07:00Would McCain/Romney be the richest ticket ever?I'm...Would McCain/Romney be the richest ticket ever?<BR/><BR/>I'm enjoying the Democratic convention right now, but although it's on every channel, only C-SPAN seems to have decent coverage -- everyone else thinks you'd rather hear their own talking heads.Williamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02052684196866992031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15868947.post-31860589996549483392008-08-25T18:19:00.000-07:002008-08-25T18:19:00.000-07:00Zeno -- you are likely already aware of this, but ...Zeno -- you are likely already aware of this, but as a factual tidbit for your readers, let me point out that the Votemaster is none other than <A HREF="http://www.cs.vu.nl/~ast/" REL="nofollow">Andrew Tanenbaum,</A> author of Minix. Why is this important? Well, it's not, really, but it is worth knowing that ast has shown himself to be a <I>mensch</I> when it matters, refusing to allow his famous technical dispute with Linus Torvalds to be used as a brush to tar Torvalds' reputation. Tanenbaum's reputation for honesty and largeness of spirit is one reason I tend to trust the numbers at electoral-vote.com. I get no subsidy from electoral-vote.com, by the way -- just think dude deserves some props, is all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15868947.post-75412883100485970102008-08-24T19:40:00.000-07:002008-08-24T19:40:00.000-07:00Rather than looking directly at polling results, p...Rather than looking directly at polling results, prediction markets may be a (pardon the pun) better bet. As I write this, shares in "Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election" on the Intrade market (conveniently based in Ireland where U.S. laws against "gambling" don't apply) are trading at 61.5. This can be interpreted to mean that the probability estimated by the market that Obama will be elected president is 61.5%.<BR/><BR/>Prediction markets are a clever way of automatically synthesizing multiple sources of information. Raw polling figures are obviously very important, but so are a number of other factors. Anyone care to speculate on what those might be? I have some ideas, but I'm just guessing. And that's what's odd about prediction markets: their predictions can be quite good even though nobody can necessarily identify what information they are using.<BR/><BR/>(For some other notes on prediction markets and the miraculous powers of Al Gore, check out <A HREF="http://logbase2.blogspot.com/2008/03/al-gore-defies-laws-of-probability.html" REL="nofollow">my post from March</A>.)Nick Barrowmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11224940659269649220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15868947.post-36972787296078789772008-08-24T11:43:00.000-07:002008-08-24T11:43:00.000-07:00That assumes, Jeff, that Romney is actually a bene...That assumes, Jeff, that Romney is actually a benefit to the McCain campaign in the state where his father used to be governor. Will a state hit hard with recession be able to appreciate a pair of Republican multi-millionaires? Besides, Mitt Romney <I>left</I> Michigan to go to Massachusetts. Do people in Michigan think it's okay that he abandoned them?Zenohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09058127284297728552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15868947.post-35692625846563815382008-08-24T11:40:00.000-07:002008-08-24T11:40:00.000-07:00Here's the electoral map I've been looking at. If...<A HREF="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_4u9lzZ9sqJk/SKwtRJbrS6I/AAAAAAAAAbs/W2xFmNJQ0WA/s1600-h/electoral.college.map.082008.gifbramble" REL="nofollow">Here's</A> the electoral map I've been looking at. If McCain taps Romney as VP, it seems like Michigan will be the battle ground state. I don't think Obama is going to be able to nab Florida or Ohio. He can still win as long as he holds onto Michigan.Jeff M.https://www.blogger.com/profile/04846971323356895103noreply@blogger.com